ЕЦБ увеличивает стимулы, евро растёт
Доброго времени суток, уважаемые коллеги!
Как отмечалось во вчерашней статье по EUR/USD, главным событием четверга стало решение Европейского Центрального Банка (ЕЦБ) по ставкам и пресс-конференция главы этого ведомства Кристин Лагард. Ну что же, подведём итоги этого важного события.
Предположения некоторых экспертов о том, что ЕЦБ снизит ставку по депозитам на 10 б.п., не оправдались, все ставки остались на прежних уровнях: основная на нулевом, депозитная минус 0.5%, маржинальная ставка 0.25%.
Прогнозы об увеличении объёмов закупок облигаций на 250 миллиардов евро также оказались далеки от реальности. ЕЦБ действительно увеличил программу PEPP, только на гораздо большую сумму, которая составила 600 миллиардов евро. Таким образом, объём Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (сокращённо PEPP) с лёгкой руки ЕЦБ вырос с 750 млрд до 1 триллиона 350 миллиардов евро. Поистине небывалый объём скупки облигаций! При этом срок действия данной антикризисной программы продлён до середины следующего года, а при необходимости – до полного завершения кризиса, вызванного эпидемией коронавируса. Напомню, что ранее эту программу планировалось проводить до конца года текущего.
Значительное увеличение объёмов PEPP и продление сроков действия программы отчётливо указали на беспрецедентность урона, который понесла европейская экономика от COVID-19.
На своей пресс-конференции председатель ЕЦБ Кристин Лагард выразила надежду, что экономический кризис достиг своего дна и теперь ожидается медленное и постепенное восстановление. О силе негативных последствий пандемии COVID-19 красноречиво указывают пересмотренные в сторону понижения экономические прогнозы европейского Центробанка.
Как заявила Кристин Лагард, темпы сокращения экономики во 2-ом квартале текущего года будут весьма и весьма существенными, а экономическое восстановление начнётся только в третьем квартале. Годовые прогнозы по ВВП еврозоны значительно понижены. Если в ещё марте годовой прогноз составлял +0.8%, то теперь ожидается, что по итогам текущего года ВВП сократится на 8.7%. Значительно снижен и прогноз по инфляции. Ещё в марте инфляционный рост ожидался на уровне 1.1%, теперь же, по последним данным, инфляция в 2020 году вырастет лишь на 0.3%. Что касается новостей из-за океана, то вчерашние данные по числу первичных и повторных обращений за пособиями по безработице вновь обнажили её рост, который имел место быть на прошлой неделе. Более чёткую и точную картину мы получим сегодня, когда в 15:30 (мск) Министерство труда США опубликует официальные данные по изменению числа занятых в несельскохозяйственном секторе экономики, уровню безработицы и росту средней почасовой оплаты труда. Именно эти три показателя являются наиболее важными и значимыми для участников рынка. Смею предположить, что именно трудовая статистика из США повлияет на итоги закрытия текущей недели.
Daily
А пока пара продолжает бурный рост. При этом отмечу, что на вчерашние экономические прогнозы ЕЦБ и выступление Кристин Лагард можно было реагировать по-разному. В таких ситуациях рынок, как правило, выбирает движение в текущем направлении, что и было сделано. Максимумы вчерашних торгов были показаны на 1.1361, а цена закрытия сессии 4 июня составила 1.1337.
На дневном графике хорошо видно, что долгое время сохранялась неопределённость и пара консолидировалась в выделенной ценовой зоне. Обычно после таких консолидаций начинается сильное ценовое движение, чаще всего тренд. Именно это и наблюдается. Однако безудержный рост евро по отношению к доллару США не может быть бесконечным или проходить без коррекционных откатов. Если сегодняшние данные по американскому рынку труда разочаруют инвесторов, EUR/USD продолжит своё восхождение, целями которого станут 1.1400 и 1.1460. В противном случае произойдёт корректировка курса в район 1.1300-1.1255. Пока же, глядя на дневной таймфрейм, возникает стойкое ощущение, что пара намерена протестировать максимумы 09.03.2020, в районе психологической отметки 1.1500.
Н1
Вчерашние торговые рекомендации планировать покупки после снижения к 1.1197, 1.1165 и 1.1150 оказались не лишены смысла. По факту торгов четверга пара опустилась только к первому обозначенном уровню и уже от 1.1194 развернулась на продолжение подъёма. Столь незначительные откаты указывают на силу тренда, в данном случае восходящего.
В моменте завершения статьи пара продолжает рост и пробивает сопротивление продавцов на 1.1361. Если бы не сегодняшняя публикация трудовых отчётов из США, рекомендовал бы после закрепления выше 1.1361 покупать евро/доллар на откате к этому пробитому уровню. По крайней мере с технической стороны такая идея вполне приемлема. Однако иди знай, как всё повернётся после выхода американской статистики по труду и какой будет реакция участников рынка.
Для тех, кто не хочет рисковать и портить себе нервы в последний торговый день этой недели, рекомендую оставаться вне рынка и просто понаблюдать за тем, что будет происходить после 15:30 по московскому времени. Находиться вне рынка — это тоже позиция. Не так ли?
Для тех же, кто непременно желает сегодня поторговать на столь важных и значимых новостях из США, рекомендую открывать позиции по тренду и покупать eur/usd после краткосрочных откатов к уровням 1.1360, 1.1330, 1.1300 и 1.1280. При этом не советую устанавливать большие цели, лучше закрыть все позиции до завершения недельных торгов и не переносить их на понедельник.
Удачного дня!
Материал предоставлен компанией InstaForex – www.instaforex.com
I gotta favorite this internet site it seems handy invaluable
It’s truly a nice and useful piece of info. I am satisfied that you shared this helpful info with us. Please keep us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.
Thanks for all of your work on this web page. My aunt delights in setting aside time for investigation and it is obvious why. A lot of people know all concerning the powerful means you deliver both useful and interesting techniques by means of your website and as well as foster response from others on this theme then our daughter is undoubtedly understanding so much. Have fun with the remaining portion of the new year. You are always carrying out a stunning job.
Kudos! Very good information.
where can i pay someone to write my essay buy college essays
Regards! Numerous advice!
no deposit online casino bonus casino online for real money windcreek online casino
Thanks a lot. A lot of information!
how do i double space my essay birdie essay writer write an essay on my best friend in hindi
Thanks a lot! I enjoy it!
college admission essay writer academic essay writer how do i celebrate my birthday essay
tadalafil cialis from india 216 Reaffirming the theory of a subsistence wage, she writes, In no other had the sweating system been carried to such extremes in the cloak making industry
Can you be more specific about the content of your article? After reading it, I still have some doubts. Hope you can help me. https://www.binance.com/sk/register?ref=JHQQKNKN
This is a novel report of sclerotherapy with doxycycline associated with the development of methemoglobinemia propecia on sale
Helpful stuff. Thanks a lot!
tripadvisor review writing service help with college essay writing essay writing strategies
You definitely made the point!
case study writing service essay writing company affordable essay writing service
Nicely put, Thanks a lot!
custom essay writing service org reviews best finance essay writing service research paper writing services
Great posts. Thank you.
real essay writing service what is the best essay writing service paper writing services legitimate
You said it nicely..
best linkedin profile writing service essay writing meme unique article writing service
Many thanks, I appreciate this.
help with college essay writing best academic essay writing service essay writing meme
Nicely put. Cheers!
essay writing editing service essay service reviews cio resume writing service
Nicely put. Regards.
card writing service cheap essay writing service australia writing services for essays
Kudos. An abundance of advice.
essay writing service australia how to teach essay writing best man speech writing service uk
You suggested this fantastically.
paper writing service reddit fake essay writing service best essay writing service website
Reliable tips. Thank you.
cover letter writing service custom essay writing services australia best linkedin profile writing service uk
Amazing many of amazing advice!
executive resume writing service boston top 10 essay writing services best and cheapest essay writing service
Many thanks, I like this.
what is the best essay writing service us based essay writing service essay writing app
Thanks, Awesome stuff!
best resume writing service 2015 houston resume writing service admission essay writing service reviews
Good data. Thanks a lot.
best admission essay writing service personal essay writing service college admissions essay writing service
You actually expressed it very well.
college essay writing tips how to teach essay writing science resume writing service
Really a good deal of fantastic data!
best reviewed essay writing service cv writing service melbourne personal statement essay writing service
You actually reported it wonderfully.
essay writing service cost essay writer help essay writing service 2018
Nicely put, Many thanks!
college essay writing service descriptive essay writing service custom business plan writing service
There is noticeably a bundle to learn about this. I assume you made certain good factors in options also.
Hi there, just became aware of your blog through Google, and found that it’s really informative. I?m going to watch out for brussels. I?ll be grateful if you continue this in future. A lot of people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!
Thanks for these guidelines. One thing I should also believe is the fact credit cards presenting a 0 monthly interest often bait consumers with zero rate, instant authorization and easy online balance transfers, nevertheless beware of the real factor that will void that 0 easy road annual percentage rate and to throw anybody out into the terrible house rapid.
Undeniably believe that which you stated. Your favorite reason appeared to be on the net the easiest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while people consider worries that they just do not know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people could take a signal. Will likely be back to get more. Thanks
Thanks for the suggestions you have shared here. Yet another thing I would like to say is that laptop or computer memory needs generally rise along with other innovations in the technological innovation. For instance, when new generations of processor chips are brought to the market, there is usually a corresponding increase in the size preferences of both computer memory in addition to hard drive room. This is because the software program operated by these processor chips will inevitably rise in power to make use of the new technological know-how.
Attractive part of content. I simply stumbled upon your site and in accession capital to assert that I acquire actually enjoyed account your weblog posts. Any way I?ll be subscribing for your feeds and even I fulfillment you access persistently quickly.
This is hands down one of the best articles I’ve read on this topic! The author’s comprehensive knowledge and passion for the subject are apparent in every paragraph. I’m so grateful for finding this piece as it has enriched my comprehension and stimulated my curiosity even further. Thank you, author, for dedicating the time to craft such a phenomenal article!
One more thing. I really believe that there are numerous travel insurance websites of respected companies that allow you to enter a trip details and obtain you the insurance quotes. You can also purchase the particular international holiday insurance policy on the net by using your credit card. Everything you need to do is to enter your travel information and you can begin to see the plans side-by-side. Simply find the system that suits your financial allowance and needs and then use your credit card to buy them. Travel insurance on the internet is a good way to begin looking for a respectable company to get international holiday insurance. Thanks for expressing your ideas.
Hi there! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I genuinely enjoy reading through your blog posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that deal with the same subjects? Thank you!
Good write-up, I am normal visitor of one?s web site, maintain up the nice operate, and It is going to be a regular visitor for a long time.
Howdy just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The words in your content seem to be running off the screen in Safari. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with internet browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know. The style and design look great though! Hope you get the problem solved soon. Many thanks
I do trust all of the ideas you have introduced on your post. They are very convincing and can certainly work. Still, the posts are too short for newbies. May you please lengthen them a little from next time? Thank you for the post.
sturion
I think other website proprietors should take this website as an model, very clean and fantastic user friendly style and design, let alone the content. You are an expert in this topic!
In these days of austerity plus relative panic about taking on debt, many people balk resistant to the idea of employing a credit card to make acquisition of merchandise or perhaps pay for a vacation, preferring, instead just to rely on the actual tried plus trusted procedure for making repayment – raw cash. However, in case you have the cash on hand to make the purchase 100 , then, paradoxically, this is the best time to be able to use the credit card for several motives.
Appreciating the hard work you put into your blog and detailed information you provide. It’s good to come across a blog every once in a while that isn’t the same unwanted rehashed information. Great read! I’ve saved your site and I’m including your RSS feeds to my Google account.
Kudos, I value this.
r&d writing service [url=https://quality-essays.com/]where can i buy an essay online[/url] paying someone to write an essay [url=https://buyanessayscheaponline.com/]buy essays cheap[/url] buying essay papers online definition of essay writing [url=https://phdthesisdissertation.com/]my doctoral dissertation[/url] analysis data for dissertation [url=https://writeadissertation.com/]dissertation ghostwriter[/url] proposal for phd
I like what you guys are up too. Such clever work and reporting! Keep up the superb works guys I?ve incorporated you guys to my blogroll. I think it will improve the value of my web site 🙂
One more thing. It’s my opinion that there are several travel insurance web sites of trustworthy companies that allow you to enter a trip details to get you the estimates. You can also purchase the particular international travel insurance policy on-line by using the credit card. All that you should do is to enter your own travel particulars and you can view the plans side-by-side. You only need to find the system that suits your allowance and needs after which use your bank credit card to buy the item. Travel insurance on the web is a good way to check for a reputable company for international holiday insurance. Thanks for revealing your ideas.
Coming from my observation, shopping for consumer electronics online may be easily expensive, nevertheless there are some guidelines that you can use to obtain the best deals. There are often ways to uncover discount offers that could help to make one to buy the best consumer electronics products at the lowest prices. Thanks for your blog post.
Mybudgetart.com.au is Australia’s Trusted Online Wall Art Canvas Prints Store. We are selling art online since 2008. We offer 1000+ artwork designs, up-to 50 OFF store-wide, FREE Delivery Australia & New Zealand, and World-wide shipping.
We’re a gaggle of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your site offered us with helpful information to paintings on. You’ve performed a formidable process and our whole neighborhood will probably be grateful to you.
I have read some good stuff here. Certainly worth bookmarking for revisiting. I wonder how much effort you put to make such a fantastic informative website.
Its like you read my mind! You seem to know a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you could do with some pics to drive the message home a bit, but instead of that, this is wonderful blog. A great read. I will definitely be back.
I?ve read some good stuff here. Certainly worth bookmarking for revisiting. I wonder how much effort you put to create such a wonderful informative site.
In these days of austerity plus relative stress and anxiety about running into debt, many individuals balk against the idea of using a credit card to make purchase of merchandise or even pay for a vacation, preferring, instead only to rely on this tried as well as trusted technique of making payment – cash. However, in case you have the cash available to make the purchase in full, then, paradoxically, that’s the best time for them to use the credit card for several causes.
I’m usually to running a blog and i actually recognize your content. The article has really peaks my interest. I’m going to bookmark your web site and hold checking for brand spanking new information.
I have learned some important things through your blog post post. One other thing I would like to convey is that there are many games on the market designed specially for toddler age youngsters. They include things like pattern acknowledgement, colors, family pets, and models. These commonly focus on familiarization as opposed to memorization. This keeps little ones engaged without sensing like they are studying. Thanks
This actually answered my downside, thanks!
Your blog is a true gem in the vast expanse of the online world. Your consistent delivery of high-quality content is truly commendable. Thank you for consistently going above and beyond in providing valuable insights. Keep up the fantastic work!
It?s really a great and useful piece of information. I?m glad that you shared this useful info with us. Please keep us up to date like this. Thank you for sharing.
I have been exploring for a little bit for any high-quality articles or blog posts on this sort of area . Exploring in Yahoo I at last stumbled upon this web site. Reading this info So i?m happy to convey that I’ve a very good uncanny feeling I discovered just what I needed. I most certainly will make certain to don?t forget this site and give it a glance regularly.
Your passion and dedication to your craft radiate through every article. Your positive energy is infectious, and it’s evident that you genuinely care about your readers’ experience. Your blog brightens my day!
you’re in point of fact a excellent webmaster. The website loading pace is amazing. It sort of feels that you are doing any unique trick. In addition, The contents are masterwork. you have done a magnificent process on this subject!
I’m truly impressed by the way you effortlessly distill intricate concepts into easily digestible information. Your writing style not only imparts knowledge but also engages the reader, making the learning experience both enjoyable and memorable. Your passion for sharing your expertise is unmistakable, and for that, I am deeply grateful.
Your enthusiasm for the subject matter radiates through every word of this article; it’s contagious! Your commitment to delivering valuable insights is greatly valued, and I eagerly anticipate more of your captivating content. Keep up the exceptional work!
What I have seen in terms of laptop memory is that often there are specifications such as SDRAM, DDR and so on, that must fit the specs of the mother board. If the pc’s motherboard is kind of current and there are no main system issues, improving the memory space literally normally takes under a couple of hours. It’s among the list of easiest personal computer upgrade procedures one can picture. Thanks for sharing your ideas.
Your unique approach to addressing challenging subjects is like a breath of fresh air. Your articles stand out with their clarity and grace, making them a pure joy to read. Your blog has now become my go-to source for insightful content.
Your blog is a true gem in the vast online world. Your consistent delivery of high-quality content is admirable. Thank you for always going above and beyond in providing valuable insights. Keep up the fantastic work!
Helpful posts. Thank you!
best nursing paper writing service will writing service has anyone used essay writing services
Your blog has rapidly become my trusted source of inspiration and knowledge. I genuinely appreciate the effort you invest in crafting each article. Your dedication to delivering high-quality content is apparent, and I eagerly await every new post.
I realized more new things on this weight reduction issue. A single issue is a good nutrition is tremendously vital when dieting. A massive reduction in junk food, sugary ingredients, fried foods, sweet foods, pork, and whitened flour products may be necessary. Holding wastes harmful bacteria, and toxins may prevent desired goals for fat loss. While certain drugs in the short term solve the matter, the unpleasant side effects are not worth it, and they also never offer you more than a short lived solution. It’s a known fact that 95 of dietary fads fail. Many thanks sharing your thinking on this site.
A lot of whatever you assert happens to be astonishingly legitimate and that makes me wonder the reason why I had not looked at this in this light previously. This particular piece truly did turn the light on for me personally as far as this topic goes. Nevertheless there is actually 1 position I am not really too cozy with and whilst I attempt to reconcile that with the core theme of the point, allow me see what all the rest of the visitors have to point out.Nicely done.