4-часовой таймфрейм
Технические данные:
Старший канал линейной регрессии: направление – вверх.
Младший канал линейной регрессии: направление – вниз.
Скользящая средняя (20; сглаженная) – вверх.
СCI: 49.1665
Второй торговый день для пары EUR/USD в более чем прозаических торгах. Пара отработала уровень Мюррея «5/8» – 1,1353 в третий раз, в третий раз отскочила от него и скорректировалась к скользящей средней линии. Таким образом, не исключено, что теперь котировки пары уйдут ниже мувинга и попытаются возобновить нисходящий тренд, однако в целом пара евро/доллар остается в пределах бокового канала, в котором находится уже около месяца. Таким образом, в техническом плане во вторник, 7 июля, не изменилось ничего. Покупатели по-прежнему опасаются новых длинных позиций, так как из Евросоюза поступает небольшое количество позитивной информации. В то же время из США ее не поступает вовсе, поэтому и покупки доллара сейчас вызывают сомнения. Тем не менее рано или поздно котировки покинут боковой канал, остается только подождать.
Во вторник из макроэкономических событий мы можем отметить только публикацию промышленного производства в Германии за май. Этот показатель оказался хуже прогнозов экспертов и составил -19,3% в годовом выражении и +7,8% в месячном. Таким образом, участники рынка ожидали более сильного восстановления показателя, и не дождались. Возможно, даже падение европейской валюты в первой половине дня было спровоцировано именно этим отчетом, хоть в это и сложно поверить, так как трейдеры регулярно игнорируют куда более значимые публикации. Тем более что пара была готова к падению из-за технических причин. Однако негатив из Евросоюза продолжал поступать. Еврокомиссия опубликовала вчера летний экономический прогноз, в котором указала, что ожидает более сильного экономического спада, несмотря на те меры, которые приняло правительство ЕС и ЕЦБ. «Наш летний прогноз показывает, прежде всего, что путь к восстановлению экономики по-прежнему вымощен неопределенностями», – заявил член Еврокомиссии Паоло Джентильони. Согласно новым прогнозам, ВВЕ Еврозоны сократится на 8,7% в 2020 году и вырастет на 6,1% в 2021 году. В Еврокомиссии разъяснили, что карантинные меры снимались и смягчались более медленными темпами, чем рассчитывали весной, поэтому влияние пандемии на экономическую активность оказалось более глубоким, следовательно, спад в 2020 будет более сильным. Также Паоло Джентильони сделал пять выводов по развитию экономики ЕС на ближайшие два года:
1) «Пандемия нанесла европейской экономике более сильный удар, чем это ожидалось».
2) «Быстрые и решительные политические меры позволили и позволяют избежать обрушения европейских рынков труда».
3) «Разница между государствами ЕС увеличивается. Европейские государства поразила одна и та же пандемия, однако последствия от нее различаются в государствах-членах».
4) «Инфляция в 2020 году останется относительно низкой».
5) «Неопределенности остаются высокими, а риски, довлеющие над этим прогнозом, ориентированы на понижение».
Таким образом, заявления Европейской комиссии переполнены удручающими выводами, прогнозами и ожиданиями. С таким фундаментальным фоном евровалюте сложно рассчитывать на укрепление. Также Джентильони затронул тему восстановления мировой экономики, сообщив: «Спад мирового ВВП в 2020 году из-за эпидемии окажется бОльшим, чем мы ожидали весной, и достигнет 4%, восстановление начнется в 2021 году на уровне 5% ВВП». Помимо этого, Джентильони заявил, что точность текущих прогнозов Еврокомиссии оставляет желать лучшего, так как существует огромное количество неопределенностей и факторов, которые могут перевернуть картину с ног на голову, может вновь оказать негативное влияние на экономический рост. Помимо этого, Джентильони отметил и высокие риски «развода» Великобритании и Евросоюза без соглашения. По словам политика, текущий прогноз на 2021 год базируется на том, что Лондон и Брюссель подпишут соглашение о свободной торговле. Также Джентильони отметил, что текущий кризис приведет к росту бедности, с которой придется бороться долгие годы. В связи с этим член Еврокомиссии призвал страны ЕС поскорее принять 750-миллиардный пакет помощи европейской экономике, который будет обсуждаться на саммите ЕС 17-18 июля. Напомним, что ранее несколько саммитов ЕС уже затрагивали тему выделения 750 миллиардов евро наиболее пострадавшим от эпидемии странам-членам ЕС, из которых около 66% средств будет предоставляться на безвозвратной основе. Однако «северные страны», так называемые «скупая четверка», Австрия, Нидерланды, Дания и Швеция, выступают против грантовой раздачи денег и готовы согласится только на вариант с кредитованием. Таким образам, даже на ближайшем саммите далеко не факт, что какое-то позитивное решение будет принято. Как мы уже говорили ранее, чем дольше Евросовет будет рассматривать этот план по восстановлению, тем сильнее экономика и отдельных стран (Испания и Италия) просядет в следствие «коронавирусного кризиса». Таким образом, нужно спешить с одобрением источников и способов распределения Фонда восстановления.
В Штатах тем временем все внимание приковано к «коронавирусу», который изо дня в день бьет рекорды. Несмотря на то что Белый Дом хранит полнейшее спокойствие, а Дональд Трамп даже призывает с первого сентября открыть все школы, эпидемия продолжает заражать по 40-60 тысяч американцев ежедневно, а общее количество зафиксированных случаев заболевания составляет уже почти 3 миллиона. Однако Дональд Трамп продолжает думать только о грядущих выборах, запланировал еще несколько поездок по американским городам с предвыборными митингами, а также не упустил возможности снова «уколоть» демократов и лично Джо Байдена, написав в своем Twitter: «Коррупционер Джо Байден и демократы не хотят открытия школ осенью по политическим мотивам, а не из-за здоровья. Они думают, что это им поможет в ноябре. Неверно, люди все поймут». Также Дональд Трамп не забыл «проехаться» и по «лживым СМИ», написав: «Смертность от китайского вируса снизилась на 39%, в то время как продолжает работать наша лучшая в мире программа тестирования. Почему фейковые СМИ молчат о том, что смертность снижается? Все потому, что они фейковые!»
На третий торговый день недели в Евросоюзе и Штатах вновь не запланировано никакой важной информации. В ЕС только выступит с речью вице-президент ЕЦБ Луис де Гиндос, который редко делает действительно важные и громкие заявления. Да и тем более, как еще вице-президент ЕЦБ может испортить настроение покупателям евро после вчерашних прогнозов и выводов Еврокомиссии и регулярных «ультра пессимистичных» выступлений Кристин Лагард? Таким образом, сегодня пара евро/доллар может оставаться внутри бокового канала, ограниченного уровнями 1,1200–1,1353.
Волатильность валютной пары евро/доллар по состоянию на 8 июля составляет 77 пунктов и характеризуется как «средняя». Мы ожидаем движение пары сегодня между уровнями 1,1205 и 1,1359. Новый разворот индикатора Хайкен Аши наверх просигнализирует о новом витке восходящего движения в рамках бокового канала.
Ближайшие уровни поддержки:
S1 – 1,1230
S2 – 1,1108
S3 – 1,0986
Ближайшие уровни сопротивления:
R1 – 1,1353
R2 – 1,1475
R3 – 1,1597
Торговые рекомендации:
Пара EUR/USD продолжает торговаться недалеко от скользящей средней линии, внутри бокового канала. Таким образом, в данное время рекомендуется торговать на понижение, если трейдерам удастся преодолеть уровень 1,1200, который является приблизительной нижней границей канала, с целью 1,1108. Ордера на покупку рекомендуется открывать не ранее преодоления уровня Мюррея «5/8» – 1,1353 с целью 1,1475.
Рекомендуем к прочтению:
«Трамп – часть коронавирусной катастрофы». Еврокомиссия понизила прогнозы по ВВП Британии. В Лондоне возобновились переговоры по Brexit.
Торговые сигналы, отчет COT:
Горящий прогноз и торговые сигналы по паре EUR/USD на 8 июля.
Горящий прогноз и торговые сигналы по паре GBP/USD на 8 июля.
Материал предоставлен компанией InstaForex – www.instaforex.com
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