Напряженная эпидемиологическая обстановка и связанные с ней опасения по поводу повторного закрытия и W-образного восстановления экономики США нанесли серьезные удары по честолюбивым замыслам «медведей» по USD/RUB. Ухудшение глобального аппетита к риску, бегство инвесторов в доллар, рост дифференциала волатильности в развитых и развивающихся странах и массовое закрытие carry-трейдерами своих позиций увели котировки пары к 5-недельным максимумам. Впрочем, музыка на улице «быков» играла недолго.
Динамика спреда волатильности
По сути ничего не изменилось. Главный экономический советник президента Ларри Кудлоу утверждает, что никто не собирается закрывать экономику на повторный локдаун, а ее возвращение к тренду будет быстрым и решительным. Позитивные данные по занятости в частном секторе от ADP и по деловой активности в производственной сфере от ISM оставляют на столе идею V-образного восстановления ВВП США. Если еще и отчет о состоянии американского рынка труда за июнь порадует, S&P 500 продолжит ралли, доллар попадет под давление, а USD/RUB сможет вернуться ниже психологически важной отметки 70.
По сути для рубля ничего не изменилось. История о сговоре Москвы с афганскими боевиками с целью уничтожения американских военнослужащих, которая может обернуться новыми санкциями против РФ, выглядит высосанной из пальца. Хорошие новости об испытаниях вакцин вселяют веру, что COVID-19 будет скоро побежден. Нефть не дает «медведям» ни одного шанса, а ожидания дальнейшего снижения Банком России ключевой ставки позволяют рассчитывать на возвращение игроков на разнице на долговой рынок РФ в случае улучшения глобального аппетита к риску. Впрочем, с учетом запуска QE в Индии, ЮАР, Польше, Южной Корее, Мексике и Таиланде у рубля появляются серьезные конкуренты за иностранный капитал, что может создать дополнительные препятствия на пути «медведей» по USD/RUB на север.
По мнению МВФ, ВВП Мексики, Бразилии, Аргентины и ЮАР в 2020 потеряют от 8% и более, что делает их валюты менее привлекательными, чем азиатские денежные единицы.
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На мой взгляд, во втором полугодии инвесторы будут использовать селективный подход к валютам развивающихся стран, ставя во главу угла такие факторы как эпидемиологическая обстановка, скорость восстановления ВВП и реальные ставки долгового рынка. Я ожидаю сохранения высокого аппетита к риску. Как показывает история, если S&P 500 по итогам квартала рос на 15% и более, то в следующем квартале он укреплялся в среднем на 9,5%. Так было в последних семи случаях из семи.
Не думаю, что что-то кардинально поменяется на рынке нефти. К Китаю в скором времени примкнет Европа, а затем и США, так что с восстановлением глобального спроса проблем не будет. Главное, чтобы не случилось двойной рецессии в Штатах и возобновления торговой войны Вашингтона и Пекина. В таких условиях рост USD/RUB к максимальной отметке с конца мая выглядит не более чем коррекцией. Она создала прекрасные возможности для продаж пары на прорыве поддержек на 70,1 и 69 в направлении таргетов на 261,8% и 161,8% по паттернам AB=CD и Краб.
USD/RUB, дневной график
Материал предоставлен компанией InstaForex – www.instaforex.com
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